My Sales Forecast is too high

This page explains some common reasons for a (too) high sales forecasts and how they can impact your planning.

At Shelf Planner, we try to provide you with the most accurate sales forecasts to help you plan and buy effectively. However, there may be instances where the forecast appears higher than expected.

Potential Reasons for High Sales Forecasts

Incorrect Seasonality

One of the key factors that can lead to a higher-than-expected sales forecast is incorrect seasonality settings. Seasonality refers to the predictable changes in sales that occur at specific times of the year, such as holidays or seasonal events.

If the seasonality parameters are not set correctly, the system might anticipate higher sales during periods that do not align with your actual sales patterns. This can result in an inflated forecast.

Missed Trends

Another common reason for high sales forecasts is that the system missed significant trends for particular products. Trends can include rapid growth in sales or shifts in consumer behavior that the forecast model has not yet fully accounted for.

Stable Period Misalignment

One specific issue related to missed trends is the use of an incorrect stable period for an item. The stable period is the time frame the system uses to analyse past sales data and identify trends.

If the system is looking too far back and does not pick up recent trends quickly enough, it might not accurately reflect your current sales trajectory. This can lead to a forecast that is higher than what you might realistically expect.

Addressing Too High Sales Forecasts

Advanced Machine Learning Techniques

Shelf Planner uses advanced machine learning techniques to automatically address forecast inaccuracies. These techniques enable the system to recalibrate and correct any inaccuracies most of the time without the need for manual intervention.

Monitoring and Manual Adjustments

While our system is highly effective at self-correcting, there may be rare instances where manual intervention is required.

Our team continuously monitors the forecasts to ensure they align with actual sales trends. In cases where the system's automatic adjustments are not sufficient, our Shelf Planner Admin team has the capability to manually intervene and fine-tune the forecast parameters.

Machine Learning - Human Interpretation

If you notice persistent inaccuracies in your sales forecasts, you can simply reach out to our support team. We are here to help and will ensure that any necessary adjustments are made to provide you with the most accurate forecasts possible.

Please reach out to the support team (help@shelfplanner.com) or in the 'Help' function in the app if you feel the sales forecast is still incorrect and need some help tweaking it.